How about the average point differential for Super Bowl winners? In the last five years, the average season point-differential of those champions is +121.6, which is just below the Chiefs' (+127) and the Cowboys' (+125) point-differential number from a season ago. 6-ranked Rams won the Lombardi Trophy after the 2021 season.īy the way, last year, the Chiefs were fourth in point differential. And the streak of top five point-differential Super Bowl winners was cruising for a while until the No. Why top six? While top five is a round number, it doesn't need to serve as a line of demarcation. Seven of the last eight and nine of the last 11 Super Bowl winners finished in the top six in point differential during the regular season. This is a repeat from a year ago, but I'm including it because, well, it bears repeating. But obviously it's just common sense if a team can generate those while doing so on a short, high-percentage throw. They strongly correlate to scoring points. Going beyond the quantitative here - yes every team wants to manufacture splash plays offensively. But the vast majority of the clubs that've become perennial contenders are making a concerted effort to highlight YAC, and frankly are quite good at it! Now, as you move down that list, there isn't a direct correlation between more YAC and more wins, of course. Since 2020, the top five teams in YAC per catch are, in order: 49ers, Chiefs, Packers, Panthers and Bengals. I'll take that 90% hit rate over a 20-year sample. In 18 of the last 20 seasons, this phenomenon has occurred. And history's wise teachings tell us at least one of those clubs are going to win their respective division this year. I'm looking at you here, Jets, Broncos, Browns, Texans, Commanders, Cardinals, Bears and Falcons Why's that? Because those are the eight last-place finishers in each division from a season ago. At least one team will go from last place in its division a season ago to first place this year They serve as the slap-in-the-face reminders we all need at the outset of a new year that there's genuinely widespread parity in the NFL. The Saints would go on to finish eighth in Aaron Schatz' defensive DVOA, the all-encompassing efficiency metric.īrace yourself for a few shockers to start the season. Ryan Fitzpatrick averaged 14.9 yards per attempt (!) and had a QB rating of 156.3. ![]() ![]() Strange.Īt the start of the prior season, the Buccaneers, who ultimately went 5-11, upended the 13-3 NFC South champion Saints 48-40. On that same day, the eventual 11-5 Seahawks needed a fourth-quarter, Russell Wilson-to- Tyler Lockett touchdown strike to beat the eventual 2-14 Bengals 21-20. Arizona scored six points through three quarters before erupting for 18 in the fourth, and Detroit linebacker Christian Jones dropped what would've likely been a game-sealing interception in overtime. ![]() There wasn't an NFL landscape-shattering upset in 2019, but the Lions and Cardinals tied 27-27 in Kyler Murray's first NFL game. In the COVID year of 2020, the eventual 1-15 Jaguars beat the playoff-bound Colts in a bizarre Week 1 contest that featured a single Gardner Minshew incompletion and a 2.4 yards-per-carry average for Jonathan Taylor. In 2021, the Saints walloped the Packers 38-3 you know the same Green Bay club that would win 13 of its next 16 games and land as the No. By the way, Wentz threw for 313 yards with four touchdowns in the win. And - ready for this? - the Carson Wentz-led Commanders squeaking out a win over the Jaguars. The Bears over the eventual NFC title-game participant 49ers in a monsoon. In 2022, all in Week 1, there was the Buccaneers dismantling the Cowboys 19-3. This is a running list of bizarro games I am positive I'll keep adding to every single year: Throw preconceived notions about teams directly out your nearest window. I have to start here - it's a self-imposed rule. There's always a wild upset or strange outcome in Week 1 So, for the third-straight year, I've compiled everything you need to remember at the beginning of the 2023 season to combat the EIBF. Here's the formula: too much anticipation, plus a long time away from football equals fan EIBF.ĮIBF will infiltrate TV rooms and NFL stadiums starting Thursday with Chiefs-Lions and continue through most of September. This phenomenon happens at the start of every NFL season. Thanks to EIBF, you're just not ready for them. What is it again? It's when you're so unfathomably excited for something - in this case, the NFL season of course - you forget about typical occurrences. ![]() Excitement-Induced Brain Fog is back in full force, sweeping the nation.
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